Two groups of Bitcoin investors are selling into the recent price surge, potentially slowing the ascent to nearly $65,000. This phenomenon raises questions about the sustainability of the latest BTC price rise and the conviction of investors. Long-term holders, who bought near highs last year, are capitulating, using the bounce to sell their coins at a loss rather than holding through deeper drawdowns. This behavior signifies a lack of confidence in the price rise's longevity. Short-term holders, who scooped up coins near recent lows, are also realizing profits at a pace exceeding $4 million per day, creating overhead supply as the market tries to break higher. This simultaneous selling from both groups is a sign of shaky conviction among those still underwater from earlier in the cycle. The analyst highlights the pattern of selling into strength, indicating exhausted conviction among long-term holders. The sell-side pressure is further exacerbated by short-term holders taking profit at volumes last seen during the peak in May. The recent price bounce, driven by softer-than-expected U.S. inflation reports, has sent BTC soaring. However, some observers remain skeptical, arguing that the data is obsolete due to the recent surge in oil prices. Ryan Lee, chief analyst at Bitget, points out that the 3.5% CPI number was driven by a 10% drop in gasoline, which reversed before the report was published. Jasper De Maere, an OTC trader at Wintermute, calls for caution, noting that the backdrop hasn't cleared with ongoing U.S. strikes on Iran and a Fear & Greed Index still in Extreme Fear territory. This skepticism highlights the complex interplay between inflation data, oil prices, and geopolitical tensions, which could impact the market's trajectory.
